Understanding the past two years have seen the worst crisis that many remember. In 2008 the government spoke of slow growth when the economy was walking (as well as certified 2009 with GDP falling by almost 4% and the destruction of nearly two million jobs) to a deep recession. A little over a year, in late 2009, the same government that denied the crisis spoke of "green shoots" and "beginning of the recovery phase." Throughout this year only focused on trying to slow down by a huge increase in spending public and remain sheltered waiting for the international recovery. The newly completed
2010 has shown how the heady atmosphere that seems to breathe between the walls of the Palacio de la Moncloa tenants generates an extraordinary sense of infallibility. It is not the first time it happens (or will be the last) with a Prime Minister: everyone else is wrong and only those who think like me are in possession of the truth. This position of a president with big gaps in knowledge economy (deficits exacerbated by the fact more like the Council of Ministers to a meeting of apostles who jalean to a forum leader discussion and generation of views among highly educated individuals) has turned what in 2009 was a serious crisis in the great recession in our economy which is introduced along the end 2010. Virtually all
continued falling throughout 2010, family consumption (now you see how it starts to destroy jobs for workers with permanent contracts and that many officials, especially municipalities, have not been able to collect their salaries ends meet, consumption contracts), credit, employment, GDP, public services (the autonomous closed health centers, municipalities their sports facilities ...), etc. The exceptions are the public expenditure the default rate, public debt (which at the end of 2010 slash 75%) and wages. The feeling in early 2010 that the economy was recovering was false (an unfortunate deception) was simply slowing the rate of deterioration.
What will happen over the new 2011? More of the same. Or worse, interest rates tend to rise from the lows, injections of cash to banks disappear (only have helped that in 2010 the banks and meet payments on its debt spectacular on the outside that was used to finance brick) and melting processes of boxes that could not be undertaken in 2009 and 2010 because of the dark interests of politicians in their control will now be accelerated. While banks are dying boxes will be concerned only for their own survival, so much that companies continue to blaze the urgent need for credit, get financing in 2011 will remain a dream for the vast majority (and those who achieve it will have to pay a differential abusive), which arrogate to the disappearance of many companies that have barely survived the end of 2010.
Many companies believe in 2010 the official message: the economy is recovering, we've hit bottom and now is wait. And emulating the Government: remain barricaded until the international economy pull the cart.
The car has not moved forward, has continued to back in 2010. It is true that China's economy has recovered somewhat, India's economy evolves and the United States has begun its recovery, but how does it affect our GDP growth? If we are only present in these markets, if our historic weaknesses in the internationalization remains a harsh reality. This improvement has to be much more so that we can offset their benefits (derived perhaps from the effect of Asian growth over our neighboring economies-Germany, France, United Kingdom ..) with the tremendous deficiencies in our internal situation.
The excellent years lived by our companies in 2007 and 2008 generated "fat" enough to survive the freezing cold 2009 and 2010. Now that the fat begins in 2011 for many is over. The sequence of ERE's with which they have been pulling hundreds of companies in 2009 and 2010 will end tragically in cessation of activity and increased unemployment.
public coffers are filled with spider webs. Despite the increase in VAT in mid-2010, the deficit has continued to gallop at ease, due to the drop in revenues and Government's obsession with avoiding the austerity in public spending. The spread of our debt is soaring, which just five years ago seemed unlikely hovers over us like a terrifying threat: very soon there will be enough money to meet all commitments (pay pensions, salaries of officials infrastructures ...)
Earlier this ended 2010, the Government seems determined to exhaust the legislature at all costs avoid social unrest. Seemed to have pleased the unions (attacking from time to time entrepreneurs, repeating that no action will be taken involving labor market flexibility, which is not cut wages ...) was to avoid mobilization of the masses. But at the end of the year we have seen what can not not be and it is impossible: the five million people without work have begun to see that continue in that position for a long time and the million people who have exhausted their unemployment begins to feel the harsh reality of the freezing cold when many of them have started to be harassed by the banks through repossession procedures.
Meanwhile, workers with permanent contracts has castled and seems not to care about the status of the five million unemployed peers. Conditioned by the union message (the blame for the crisis is not the workers, so it must be the workers pay) no one wants not to mention adjust wages to productivity. Neither workers nor government nor unions ... want to talk about labor flexibility. Something as logical as wages and productivity balance then becomes impossible. And something as illogical as seeing wages rise as unemployment increases and decreases in production, is still our daily bread.
Any good news for this 2011? GDP will fall. But if we consider that in 2009 fell by almost 4% and in 2010 has fallen by more than 1%, do not think it worthy of celebration that little improvement in 2011. Unemployment will continue to grow (in the latter half of 2010 has exceeded 20%) earlier this year, but in the second half will see a small recovery (tens of thousands of immigrants have decided to return to their countries and are becoming more English, especially the young, who are migrating to countries like Germany, UK, Brazil ... looking for an opportunity to have clear in Spain did not find) so that may celebrate the end of 2011 unemployment rates back to below 20%. The deficit will begin to restrain (the state will continue privatizing public services, airports, health, education ... - and the coffers will have a break). One thing is
clear: the decade that is now beginning will be very hard for everyone. But we must not forget that we are playing the future and what we do now in 2011 (and what they fail to do) will depend on the Spain in 2020. The sooner you get a great deal to reform education, labor market, public and government, the greater the chance of avoiding that today, January 14, 2010 seems inevitable: to become one of the poorest countries Europe.
