said the English writer William George Ward pessimist complains wind, the optimist expects it to change, and the realist adjusts the sails.
Spain is a galleon sailing through the sea of \u200b\u200bthe crisis with a crew ruled by optimistic: the captain stands by the bridge, surrounded by his loyal officers, waiting for the wind changes.
English companies in many pessimists we (always complain, they did in 2007 when our GDP grew and they do now that decreases), many optimists (who do nothing but simply wait for a turnaround) and a few (at least) realistic: people who adjust the sails depending on the direction and intensity of the winds.
comment because a few days ago I commented that students "can feel a certain optimism." Right. But it is more positive minded people waiting for a wind change (such as Ward would say) that individuals whose mood is conditioned by a serene and objective analysis of reality.
Major economies have left behind the recession. But that does not mean a strong recovery (simply have stopped falling). Meanwhile, Spain will continue to fall at the end of 2010 (at a lower speed, of course) and we are closer to a second recession (two consecutive quarters of negative chaining if the third this year is negative, it seems it will, and the fourth follow the same trend, which encourage little information otherwise.) We must not fall into pessimism, but take action (be realistic) something that our leaders have not yet decided.
entire arsenal deployed in the form of stimuli (E plans for municipalities, grants for cars, appliances ...) generated an insignificant growth (in the second quarter of 2010) of 0.2%, a source of satisfaction for optimism and concern for the royalists.
Be a "W" (a second recession after a period of slight growth experienced until the third quarter of 2010) or "L" (left to fall, but will have a long period of negligible growth) is absolutely necessary to make deep reforms (what has been done so far, although it is a first step, it is absolutely insufficient.)
Favorable Winds, if any Hayles: emerging economies recover, Latin America remains a significant growth rate and the German locomotive starts carburizing (but keep in mind that the weakness wielded by the euro during the debt crisis griegohispanolusa helped its exports). But the strength of these winds is relativized by the uncertainties substantial economies such as Britain (deficit and debt) or the U.S. itself (the housing slump persists and does not end up starting to create jobs), or the certainty about the serious problems which face countries like Greece or Ireland.
But above all adverse winds still blowing in our own country. The unemployment rate at home riding above 20% with a labor reform that has not stopped anyone happy (or unions, neither employers nor the government ...). The credit does not stop flowing (the banks have enough to meet their own commitments while watching the growth rate of default).
Deficit reduction is a mystery because it is difficult to control the various sources of generation of public spending, especially in some municipalities and autonomous regions will face a daunting challenge in 2011. Indeed, with the chaos of municipalities and communities, could fulfill our commitment to deficit reduction -6% of GDP in 2011? He who sees little chance you know what awaits us: back problems with the differential de la deuda (reviviremos mayo de 2010).
Con un 20% de paro (el FMI dice que no volveremos a crecer por encima del 2% -el mínimo exigible para comenzar a crear empleo- hasta 2016), los mercados controlando nuestra inversión pública, recortes, falta de crédito, incrementos de impuestos, desastre inmobiliario y administraciones públicas hiperdimensionadas (por cierto, solo la administración central ha incrementado un 2,6% el número de funcionarios)… el mercado interior tardará en recuperarse. El único clavo ardiendo al cual podemos agarrarnos es la (esperemos) recuperación exterior. Pero aquí las empresas españolas se darán de bruces con la cruda realidad: no son competitivas. The chaos of the growing season has led to the current situation in which the ratio between wages and the results are disastrous, have been increasing salaries without increasing proportion of income generated, which has made it very touched to our productivity. It is true that English exports have grown in the first half of the year by 16%. But in the last three months show a slowdown in its growth rate for concern, and despite growing up, we are still far from the volume reached in 2007 (if all goes well will close 2010 with a similar volume in 2006). In other words, we are not taking advantage (or can not exploit) foreign recovery with the same possibilities our competitors Franks, Germanic or Anglo-Saxon.
And I remember (in case anyone had forgotten) that we still have a million unsold flats (over 150,000 million bricks in the bank balance and savings) and nobody knows when it will sell (and developers due to Banking 400,000 million). With a dead real estate market (the promotroes not lower the price it is preferred that the bank) will sooner or later, that hole of over 500,000 million euros.
Being a country with many pessimists (as much as do Spain will be Spain), with many optimistic (without doing anything again be the joy of the garden in the mushroom league) and unrealistic (but ... we have to adjust a sail, no?) has generated another problem: in other places (like Germany) the crisis has prompted people to change (despite not having debt problems Germany to cut its public spending, despite not having a 20% unemployment, many countries introduce best) while in Spain we have not used the crisis to carry out deep reforms are being demanded for years.
And here I turn back to a phrase Ward: Opportunities are like sunrises, if you wait too long, they were lost.
Enrique de la Rica, School of Business ESEUNE (http://www.eseune.edu) Evolutionary Blog (Http://eseune.blogspot.com) 
