Time
Camps is time, time to "take action" through a "Brave Little Tailor" (because with a name as a bull can be any less cowardly ...)
Jokes aside ... has arrived When you take drastic measures because the crisis has reached that moment in the one plays all out.
Recovery or depression? "Inflation or deflation? What awaits us just around the corner?
personally do not share the optimism of some economists (obvious comment unbridled optimism of our leaders because, as I said on other occasions, or "clueless" or we are "fooling" to this day I still do not have clear which of the two options is worse) on the horizon the end of the crisis.
My argument is simple. What was the trigger for the crisis? While some no longer seem to remember, were the so-called "toxic assets." To date not yet known how much toxic assets still held by financial institutions. Until "decontaminated" the ground, we can not start building. And we do not know how deep we will keep digging to remove toxic waste, I think it's early to organize the opening ceremony of the mall. Some speak
"back to normal" in 2010. But, what we call 'normality'? I have one thing clear: what many consider "normal" will not return, at least in a long time. This wild orgy of consumer credit, mortgage to 50 years for 120% of the value of a home, leasing, rentings ... will not return in years. Financial institutions must redefine the concept of "normality", as individuals, families and many companies (such as the automotive sector)
Now, not to return to the "era of debauchery", a time of "perpetual liquidity" and "orgies consumerism "does not necessarily fall into a depression. As we celebrate the bicentenary of Charles Darwin have to remember that humanity adapts to changes to survive, and that's what it touches.
Deflation, general fall in prices, unemployment ... what is known as "depression," not see it. I think that is something that has been overcome (the 1929, the twentieth century). At some point the trend will change, and I have only one argument to support this theory: there is still pasta galore. This crisis has swept away much, much money (just read what they have lost friends in the Forbes list.) But that does not mean that money has "disappeared" or has been "destroyed." There remains a lot of money. And money is characterized by a number of things: it is nervous and impatient (can not sit still), is cautious (and with which it has fallen), and wants to start (need to find profitability)
That money is waiting a signal. Of course, not the stock exchange (our grandchildren will not know what was Wall Street and will have to explain counting some war stories about the pasta we lost in the day with shares in such company ....), Or the brick ... Money is looking for operations fast and safe even if they involve low profitability (that invest 10 million on a site and wait 5 years to see how become 30 million, with an increased risk ... the story goes). Money
have Hayles, so we will not enter into an apocalyptic depression. We need new "concepts" to define us coming.
Because without doubt the worst is yet to come.
A GDP in ruins
Our GDP has a bigger problem than recession: despair. No where to get it. Have exhausted the sources of growth, the elements that have pulled their growth over the past fifteen years, and there is a locomotive on the horizon to replace these sources of growth
The main factor contributing a favorable growth of our economy for more than a decade has been the construction, mainly tensile interest rates down (housing boom) and community cohesion funds (public works). Those structural funds, not only modernized our infrastructure (roads, airports, railways, high-speed ports ...) but directly generated 375,000 direct jobs plus hundreds of thousands indirectly. But with the successive enlargements of the European Union, Spain has become net contributor and that source of growth is exhausted.
On the other hand, foreign direct investment is falling. Multinational companies that stopped years ago in Spain set to focus their eyes in the former eastern bloc countries and Asian tigers. Of the 36,000 million dollars of direct foreign investment in 2002 fell to only 10,000 million in 2004 and in 2007 the figure reached 5,000 million. Multinationals located in Spain invest just enough to paint the facades of the few factories that are left in the old skin of a bull and to renew their office furniture. Wage convergence with European Union countries makes our workforce is no longer economically attractive. It's not just the multinationals leave our country are increasingly English companies move their production activities to other latitudes, from industry (textiles, footwear, automotive, appliances ...) to services (whether low-skilled workers such as call-center in Peru and qualified as design and advertising creativity in Argentina or India programming)
For many, the situation need not be so alarming, because while some elements of our economy is slowing (industrial production, construction ...), the main generator of resources for our GDP not be exhausted (at least the next billion years): the sun. Yes. But the fact remains that the growth in our main source of income, tourism is at least uncertain. In 2008 he returned to beat the record of tourists visiting our country. But on the other hand, declined by 2% revenue (for the price pressures exerted by large tour operators). We dress more ... and enter less. Meanwhile, the entrepreneurs see their costs increase steadily: food, labor, energy, services ... In recent decades Spain has been the recipient of millions of tourists who, moved by the big tour operators , went to cheaper destinations. Prices and sun were the two main arguments. But now Spain is no longer costs so low. Do not alter prices means lower margins. Keep coming more tourists than ever, increase revenues, but profitability is reduced. Moreover, this practice is limited. What will happen when it is not possible to continue offering large tour operators and wholesalers such a competitive price? Will they change their destinations to these countries as Turkey, Tunisia, Morocco, Montenegro, etc..? If this does happen, how to reposition the sector?
is true that many of these things were known in advance: that the structural funds would not be eternal, that Spain would cease to be a country with cheap labor; etc. But what we have done their homework to deal with this situation? Brick economy was an economy of mind that mortgaged our future.
education leaves much to be desired (as shown from the PISA report, with evidence that put our teens in the post-ranking twenties to the prestige of our universities, none among the top 50 EU and none among the 100 best in the world), Spain is one of the few Western countries where productivity declines (GDP among working people) as we see how, despite being the fifth largest economy in the EU, deals with the caboose in R + D (fourteenth place) and business investment in ICT in relation to Gross Domestic Product (fifteenth position.)
The consequences will be serious because, contrary to what some think, the party has just begun. The low productivity of our companies (50% compared to the U.S. and 15% below the European Union average of 15) we will bill in the coming years. Other economic powers will withstand the rain thanks to its presence in growing markets (like China and India). The English trade deficit and the low level of internationalization of our economy (in particular small and medium enterprises) prevent our country use this escape. Looking
decomposition of our GDP ... I get to mourn. I do not see anything encouraging. Half are highly uncompetitive sectors. Many are now saying that "we need innovation." When we said a few ten years ago (when it was said that "Spain is going well!") That Spain was misguided and needed innovation, we looked like aliens ("things are very, very well ... and there is little evidence to get worse "... I became angry that an assistant to one of my lectures)
The responsiveness of Government being worse than zero: harmful. Because when one does nothing it does not know what to do, at least recognizes that inaction will exacerbate the problem. But when you do something absolutely useless believing it will improve the situation, not only is preventing the problem is solved, but that ignores reality and the situation gets worse without realizing it. The "Plan E" has proven what many thought when he showed up: Stupid.
I am the first to say that a bad plan is better than no plan. But the problem is that the "Plan E" is not even a bad plan ... It's nothing.
When we talk about plans Structural reforms are talking about (and put thousands of people to dig trenches is not reform) to prevent our country "Japonic" (our GDP starts to bleed to the beast).
1. We need to address a major refurbishment of the labor market For now only the "politically incorrect" dare we say: we must relax the dismissal. Do not cheapen it ... but flexibility will say, because only cheapen it is not enough. When I speak of "flexible" talk about making the process easier, eliminate the process of social stigmatization that is generated around a company or employer who fires, etc. View dismissal as normal in a normal market economy. Apart of course drastically reduce compensation.
Without this flexibility many companies are going to die. There are now companies that need fire to 10% of the workforce by reducing their sales or orders (a verifiable fact!) And can not do it because they have no cash for compensation and consequently the situation worsens, they are not "between backs to the wall "but between" two swords "that squeeze more and bleed companies: first arrive no other income and can not reduce labor costs-which is dedicated to the thousands of business bankruptcy . A country
with millions of unemployed is unfortunate. But there may be something much worse: a country with millions of unemployed and no companies that can offer a short-term employment. The government and unions strive to protect workers (rectified ... if only union workers with work), when there are jobs to protect, ie companies.
In Spain there are 3 million SMEs with fewer than 50 workers. If all they could hire a person, to end the strike. If instead we die to 10% of these companies will have another 3 million more unemployed .... This country needs measures to save companies! Starting with the reductions in social security contributions. The research service offers BBVA 3.5 points lower social security contributions to businesses (but also offers up two points on Value Added Tax for the measure to be "neutral" in terms of revenue, since the rise VAT offset the fall in the prices-no tax revenue would decrease in a brutal year deficit-and, according to BBVA would create 280,000 jobs and bring half a point to GDP growth)
As I said in another post , up to 18% VAT is not the best idea to stimulate consumption decreases in a rush (and this I consider it a major elements on which we have influence: that people eat). It does little good people to work, if not eat (but of course, is a recommendation of a bank: they can always make impositions on fixed income).
Some say that lower corporate taxes and relax the dismissal does not generate employment. Of course not. Otherwise, the unemployment problem was solved with a pair of decrees. Lower taxes create jobs. But it may allow many companies to survive, and survive without businesses there will be more jobs, but much more unemployment.
demagoguery There is a great environment to all this, when speaking of flexible dismissal, reducing corporate taxes, etc. many people jump into the neck referring to Booty, the CEOE, Amancio Ortega ... saying it only serves to make the rich "businessmen" ... Many people have a misconception of the term "entrepreneur." The Spoils, Boluda, Florentines, Pozer ... you can count on the fingers of a few hands. But in this country there are millions of small entrepreneurs (with capital letters) that are being choked off the bench, the Government and demagoguery.
Anyway ... I remember one thing: we are facing the biggest crisis in recent history. Save companies is not a fad ... but an imperative, if we keep falling down a deep abyss. If you do not save our Spain companies are going to fall off the list of developed countries and in four or five years we will compare with the "second world" (not to countries like Somalia but with Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, Indonesia ...) If we protect in
excess workers will be condemning the unemployed. Paradoxically, in the exceptional situation in which we live just checked out we will be protecting the workers employment. Many people speak of irrevocable social gains ... but sometimes the only way to overcome an obstacle passing through a few steps backwards ... to drive us forward.
On the other hand, the serious problem of productivity of English firms is not resolved solely on the basis of lower labor costs. It has to work hard in innovation ... and as you know who I'm still ... innovation happens by people. Only organizations that attract, customer loyalty and use the talents of individuals, can evolve significantly. It is a paradox to talk of relaxing the dismissal and retain talent, but not a contradiction: both issues are necessary ... because just going in one of those addresses (by reducing costs or increasing the value) improves productivity.
is difficult to involve people being the EU country with the highest percentage temporary workers (over 30%, compared to an average of around 15% in the EU). But this is by the consequences of the high fixed payments for contracts that have "segmented" labor market "fixed" and "temporary
2. Reduce wages Our salaries are Disneyland, a fantasy unreal if we analyze them in relation to productivity.
English Labour costs are too high compared to the Europeans to analyze the productivity of our businesses. People drive German cars, comes as German workers ... and produces as Czech workers. Workers drive a BMW and businesses whose productivity is so low we come to ruin. Our workers have to drive Skodas because our companies are not as competitive as German. We urgently need to increase productivity to sustain wages or otherwise, update (freeze as Volkswagen aims to bridge the Seat factory in Barcelona or even reduce them, many SMEs do not survive if they do not reduce their salaries by 15% ... and that short term will not be able to improve their productivity by optimizing processes)
The problem is that we have become accustomed to the BMW, 47-inch TV and several holidays a year (for skiing at Christmas, little beach in summer getaways to hotels Boutique between the two). Only recognized by all who have lived beyond our means we will take this necessary adjustment without tension or scares.
I have not yet talked about it ... for sure I will have to devote another article in the not too distant future ... The social tension not only chewed on the environment ... but that comes up is unstoppable.
Without structural measures will not solve the crisis English (our particular crisis) ... even resolve the global crisis. And the second solution is also unclear is imminent ... ... white and milk bottle! Nothing seems to indicate that we can avoid the 5 million unemployed, a deficit of close to 10% ... and not to pay subsided by unemployment. If we do nothing to prevent (if not already take structural measures) the problem will worsen and within a few months (Fall 2009), we have serious social conflict in the streets: general strikes, demonstrations.
3. Redefining the State of Autonomous
Another issue on which many do not want to mess it certainly is a mess of three to the room. But the state of autonomous crisis deepens.
We have recently seen the police said the streets of Madrid (in a peaceful way ... it would have otherwise curious result dissolves itself as themselves) to demand their salaries match those of other police officers. And in no other country in the world there are so many police per citizen as ours: Moss, ertzainas, National, Police, Councils, Miñones ... not to mention the city in town ... big or small. Apart from the duplication of functions in many layers, all want to charge as any charges ... are judicial officers, policemen, doctors ...
these days also witness another conflict, in this case relating to the Abortion Act. Politicians wield an argument when they talk about the need to amend that law, was created many years ago ... that an update is needed to adapt to changing times. What about the state of autonomous embodied in the English Constitution in the mists of time? Many readers of this article had not been born. Was outlined in the era in which movies and Pajares Esteso blockbuster (the "Autonosuyas)
oversimplify (I'm not at all skilled in the art ... come on ... I have no idea and do not want to get the foot more than what I usually do) the state of autonomous was a channeling of ethno-linguistic plurality of this country, from different historical rights that were abolished during the twentieth century and the nationalist sensitivities. Nice if, but nothing practical. When a traffic accident in the "border" between two autonomous regions of the ambulance drivers are a mess to decide to which hospital is run (sometimes have to travel more miles to transport the wounded "inside" the Community .) There are other communities who report to the courts for its fiscal policies (including partners of the same party defending the interests of each their own communities). There are a Christ mounted with funding much of these autonomies. A mess of three noses to the topic of water ... all in a country of 45 million people with 17 Autonomous Communities. Man ... in the United States understands that federalism (California has almost as many inhabitants as Spain and several countries increased surface area that our small country.) We created the disunited States of Iberia.
is not a political issue, but economic. There are American companies that have settled in Spain dismissed because it is not a country, but 17. As an example, a company that I work, dedicated to recycle industrial waste, if you have a peak of activity in Navarra and trucks and people standing in Alava can not commit to meet peak demand in the other community because it has no permissions or because workers are unaware of the processes on the same (as each community has its own rules). We have seen the problem of hunting was hunting Bermejo ... licensed Castilla la Mancha, Andalusia and as he had left the GPS at home .... It looks like a joke ... but in the same way that a hunter needs 17 licenses to hunt or fish in this small country ... something similar happens to many companies.
But it would be just an anecdote complex problem is becoming even when they hit bad times. With a deficit of havoc caused no problems will be forthcoming for the financing of many millions of so many government officials in duplicate. In some cases, is not only a nuisance to the citizen (or a very serious problem as we have seen in the case of justice ... with the big "disconnect" between courts) as you see your medical record is not accessible from the computer from the ambulance Murcia ... where he was on vacation ... because the computer system of his community is different ... (in some cases .... All systems are different in all communities) but a serious waste problem.
These days we have seen the problem of financing of autonomous is driving many companies into bankruptcy: some take up to two years behind in payments to small and medium enterprises. The worst thing is that they have not paid ... but from now will be more difficult for them to pay.
This is a country that always grabs the wrong end of the leaves. Filled newspaper pages and hours talking about the buga gathering of Touriño ... but ... does anyone know how many units of the vehicle fleet totals all together Autonomy? Cars of Presidents (the ticket from the Taxi Revilla) of the directors of the provincial councils ... ... How much money are we going down the drain autonomous! Especially now ... we need it more than ever. So, to suspend certain powers, do not think an idea is too crazy.
4. Redefining the time and space To consume we must have money to make money we have to work, but work so much we do not have time to eat.
a measure worthy of analysis would be the reduction of working days. People could work part-time ... so the other half devoted to many things ... among them to consume. Or we could reduce the workweek to four days. If you give people more time to be away from work ... end up eating.
Another measure that could be implemented is the freedom of trading hours, especially on Sundays and public holidays. It is pathetic to see thousands of people in a shopping center a rainy Sunday ... with all the shops closed, people must be given more opportunities to consume. Because we desperately need people to consume. Freedom
much more temporal and spatial mobility. It is pathetic to see how we are still citizens of this country (I was the first I was born in Bilbao, Bilbao went to school, I studied my career at Liverpool, working in Bilbao, in Bilbao I married, my children were born in Bilbao. ..) We have too little willingness to move where the opportunities lie. It is a cultural and economic factor (Development of a market for rental housing, housing that promote geographic mobility of workers, etc.).
