La comunidad manchega es conocida por las singladuras de su célebre hidalgo caballero, sus entrañables molinos, la textura de sus quesos….y su caja de ahorros.
La CCM se ha hecho más famosa de lo que los manchegos pensaban (y querrían). Y durante muchos años será recordada. “Aquí empezó todo….” Dirán algunos.
Porque el crujido del sistema financiero español solo acaba de empezar. “¡En vísperas del G-20!” –dicen algunos. “¡Qué papelón para Zapatero!”- dicen otros. La verdad es que a Zapatero lo de la caja manchega “se la pela” (con sorry). Does anyone imagine Obama having tea with Gordon Brown and comment ... "Hey ... that scene in Spain that Moltó box" ... and the British response ... "but it's not a bike Moltó?" The
the CCM has no point of comparison with surgery and / or rescue of U.S. banks, British, German, Dutch ... And probably the presidents of those governments or have heard of La Mancha box
But as I said .... the crack is just above the flood. A slight sound that surprises you when you walk down the mountainside and stimulates your senses to run and seek shelter.
That is what we should do. Running and prepare for the next.
I've never been very good with numbers (my teacher would correct me and say that rather bad) but the rule of three I knew it perfectly. If
with just under 4 million unemployed have a delinquency rate now close to 4 %.... in time when unemployment gets a little older and reach 5 million (20%) rate ... late payments will double.
The strike is unstoppable bleeding ... among other things because nobody does anything about it (not taking a single structural measure and we just wait and see what happens, and take us forward the avalanche) and some analysts expect to reach a default rate of 9% (the analyst Santiago López Day Credit Suisse said today that in late 2009 to 8%)
Consider a scenario: 20% unemployment, 5 million unemployed (counting self-employed who have no work, etc.), and a default rate of 9%. A more likely scenario (except for the optimistic anthropology).
In this case the effect of La Mancha will run quickly to other banks, and banks. Several stalling. It will require an injection of about 100,000 million Euros (10 times less than in the United States of America ... but too much for the States Disunited Iberia). And I'm not exaggerating ... because Credit Suisse forecasts already talking about 60,000 million ...
Those will suffer most are the boxes, the most exposed to the "English subprime (mortgages for 120% of the value of housing, 50 years, for people who once had contracts garbage ... and now queue daily in the INEM). Many have to make a move now (have not heard the crunch of snow avalanche advertising!) And begin to merge (or three ... or four ...) to sell its industrial holdings while still being worth something, to issue voting shares, close absurd branches of many of them far from their territory ....
Banks in general are less exposed to the brick (a clamp formed by the developer who is renegotiating its debt and mortgaged unemployed who do not pay premiums). But that is "generally" a bank "in particular" need urgent intervention, rescue, shot .... Or whatever. And many of them to sell assets, cut dividend, raise capital ....
And meanwhile ... looking to London. So we were five months ago .... Looking at Washington. There are going to rebuild the capitalist system ... and finally decided just "meeting again in five months. ... And wait has been lucky. " Pessimists say that the next G-20 will be staged the tension arising from the divergent views within the European Union. I am more optimistic, nothing will happen. Nothing at all, not too much, or little ... I would say Café Quijano. The main agreement is "to meet again after the summer .... And see what happens"
Enrique de la Rica, School of Business ESEUNE (http://www.eseune.edu) Evolutionary Blog (http://eseune.blogspot. com) 
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