I must begin by expressing my ignorance about the behavior of stock markets, saying an argument my biggest blunders when buying and selling stock when I dare to do so. Of the bag is rather limited: only sometimes up and sometimes down ... but not necessarily in that order.
I notice my lack of knowledge about stock market because I will begin my comments by referring to the "heater" that some have experienced with the rise of the English stock market in recent weeks (since I decided to "out" of it ... more or less in another show of vision for my collection). It is true that the stock market is ahead of the economy ... but one of two things: either go very very far ahead ... or something is not right. Those who think they see in the rise of the English stock market the end of the crisis in the medium term (that the stock market recovery begins to sense) I think they are too optimistic. I would rather see a momentary recovery resulting from the withdrawal of funds bears pondering much stock in India (such as banking ..) I suspect will be the preamble ... a new and more spectacular fall.
As usual, some will think I'm too alarmist ... but I do it to balance the unbridled optimism that arises when someone wants to hold on to positive news ... even if something as simple (and virtual) as a rising India, ignoring the nine other negative news.
The English economy is getting better, and worse, there is no indication that things will improve ... but quite the opposite. The figures published are increasingly unheard but more worrying is the fact that is being generated around them, as happens when a person abuses of antibiotics daily overconsumption negative number means that people are doing immune to them: any of the details that have emerged in recent weeks have shaken people a couple of years. Only one of them would have sufficed! And today we are impervious to a cascade unprecedented negative figures: more than four million unemployed, declines in vehicle sales 50% fall in mortgage lending by 40%, industrial production falling by 25%, exports of membership social security, prices, savings bank intervention ....
few months ago some optimistic placed the recovery in the second quarter of 2009, others in the second half. Today there are less deluded increasingly expecting a recovery during the year. Saw the picture I dare to predict that 2009 will be a horrible year and that 2010 will be worst year yet, year in Spain will overcome 20% de paro (cinco millones de personas sin empleo). Son muchos los que tras unos años de bonanza están preparados para afrontar una crisis violenta pero corta…como la que se esperaba; pero serán pocos los que puedan afrontar una crisis larga…como la que realmente nos espera.
Es duro reconocerlo, pero las cuotas de bienestar que hemos alcanzado tras muchos y duros años de trabajo..se fugan por desagüe…sin que nadie sepa qué hacer para evitarlo. Las medidas que están tomando nuestro gobernantes están llevando el déficit público a cotas insospechadas hace tan solo unos meses. La caída en la recaudación fiscal por un lado y el aumento de la factura por las prestaciones de desempleo (que algunos quieren that will ultimately prolong and strangle the state) are going to generate a deficit closer to 10% to 5%. A bill that will take years (a generation "?) To pay. The decline in the services provided by the welfare state will be considerable: health, education, pensions .... Meanwhile
banking is playing with fire ... sitting on a can of gasoline. As the bankruptcy of the largest developers triple its current rate of default .... They're keeping their flats, townhouses .... On the one hand, we offer customers another with rebates of up to 50% on the original appraisal (based on which granted appropriations at the time). This pressure on prices that are causing the banks is creating a perverse effect on the market: the promoter "good" (which continues to pay their debts to the bank religiously) does not sell a single story (the few that are sold ... sold it banks ... they are the ones that credit for selected customers). Gradually the promoters "good" may not meet its commitments to the bank ... and they will become real estate. Before the end of the football league (by the way .... Liga BBVA) instead of giving checks to those lucky enough to put a goal from midfield ... they are giving away a detached in Murcia or a warehouse in Guadalajara.
And worst of all, you have billions of euros from state coffers (ie our taxes) to try to save the economy ... and nothing suggests that the bleeding is stopped. It is true that currently there are many more banks have gone bankrupt, but the virus has not yet been eradicated. While not known with certainty the volume of assets that circulate throughout the world, the beginning of the end of the problem does not appear. The banks will not lend, not buy the citizens and businesses ... without making. Habemus recession.
Enrique de la Rica, School of Business ESEUNE (http://www.eseune.edu) Evolutionary Blog (http://eseune.blogspot.com) 
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