Supplementary Angles Projects

under Pedro Solbes


never imagined I could miss Pedro Solbes. Despite their euphemisms for not recognizing the crisis, the ExVice had one thing that I liked: it was not the work of pulling the house out the window. The statements of the new Minister to suspect that more que un relevo por cansancio, Zapatero se ha quitado del medio a Solbes y Vegara para que en los Consejos de Ministros no quede nadie que le recuerde que la desmesura en el gasto público nos puede conducir al desastre. Solbes hacía de Pepito Grillo. Ahora en lugar de la voz de la conciencia se escuchará el eco de la voz del Presidente; donde estaba Pepito ahora tenemos a Pepiño.

Lo primero que veremos antes del verano (o durante para que la gente se lo tome con resignación) es una subida de impuestos (ya la estamos viendo, entre otras cosas con subidas de las tasas de aeropuerto, etc.). Con los más de 4.000.000 de parados hoy ya reconocidos oficialmente (y subiendo) los planes de ZP y su Gobierno pueden hipotecar el futuro de Spain long term. The high public spending, the number of staff we have in Spain, pensions, subsidies to millions of unemployed, the "gift checks" of 400 euros to 20,000 million will melt the new minister of infrastructure this year The money for municipalities to pay a fraction of what they should (what many do not want to see but we have just around the corner) the paste to intervene to several banks and savings banks ... we will mortgage for decades.

The IMF has warned: if you use one hundred percent all the anti-crisis measures and consumed all the maximum advertised or committed by the Administration, public debt Spain's gross and guaranteed by the Government or its institutions increased by 395,000 million and the ratio of public debt to GDP may be up to 74%.

first thing he said the new second vice president and Minister of Economy and Finance, Elena Salgado, emphatically, yes "there is fiscal space" to launch new spending measures against the crisis. The Government is ready to burn the ships ... and that is coming from behind the wit.

has not adopted any measures to improve the productivity, competitiveness, innovation ... Thousands of million to hold the shower and wait until it clears, oblivious to the predictions of all meteorologists, the storm will be over our heads for several more quarters (including all 2010). If we continue like this, the picture within a year, to 6,000,000 unemployed and a brutal deficit, is simply devastating (the side effects will be catastrophic: unemployment = less consumption-stop = + = + = + paste default to intervene banks = + deficit ....)

Ah! and greeting for MBA students in Coruña Caixanova with that last Monday and Tuesday I had the opportunity to share ideas and views on these topics cough.

Enrique de la Rica, School of Business ESEUNE (http://www.eseune.edu) Evolutionary Blog (http://eseune.blogspot.com)

Ri Companies And Maternity Leave

The inevitable path towards recession

I must begin by expressing my ignorance about the behavior of stock markets, saying an argument my biggest blunders when buying and selling stock when I dare to do so. Of the bag is rather limited: only sometimes up and sometimes down ... but not necessarily in that order.
I notice my lack of knowledge about stock market because I will begin my comments by referring to the "heater" that some have experienced with the rise of the English stock market in recent weeks (since I decided to "out" of it ... more or less in another show of vision for my collection). It is true that the stock market is ahead of the economy ... but one of two things: either go very very far ahead ... or something is not right. Those who think they see in the rise of the English stock market the end of the crisis in the medium term (that the stock market recovery begins to sense) I think they are too optimistic. I would rather see a momentary recovery resulting from the withdrawal of funds bears pondering much stock in India (such as banking ..) I suspect will be the preamble ... a new and more spectacular fall.
As usual, some will think I'm too alarmist ... but I do it to balance the unbridled optimism that arises when someone wants to hold on to positive news ... even if something as simple (and virtual) as a rising India, ignoring the nine other negative news.
The English economy is getting better, and worse, there is no indication that things will improve ... but quite the opposite. The figures published are increasingly unheard but more worrying is the fact that is being generated around them, as happens when a person abuses of antibiotics daily overconsumption negative number means that people are doing immune to them: any of the details that have emerged in recent weeks have shaken people a couple of years. Only one of them would have sufficed! And today we are impervious to a cascade unprecedented negative figures: more than four million unemployed, declines in vehicle sales 50% fall in mortgage lending by 40%, industrial production falling by 25%, exports of membership social security, prices, savings bank intervention ....
few months ago some optimistic placed the recovery in the second quarter of 2009, others in the second half. Today there are less deluded increasingly expecting a recovery during the year. Saw the picture I dare to predict that 2009 will be a horrible year and that 2010 will be worst year yet, year in Spain will overcome 20% de paro (cinco millones de personas sin empleo). Son muchos los que tras unos años de bonanza están preparados para afrontar una crisis violenta pero corta…como la que se esperaba; pero serán pocos los que puedan afrontar una crisis larga…como la que realmente nos espera.
Es duro reconocerlo, pero las cuotas de bienestar que hemos alcanzado tras muchos y duros años de trabajo..se fugan por desagüe…sin que nadie sepa qué hacer para evitarlo. Las medidas que están tomando nuestro gobernantes están llevando el déficit público a cotas insospechadas hace tan solo unos meses. La caída en la recaudación fiscal por un lado y el aumento de la factura por las prestaciones de desempleo (que algunos quieren that will ultimately prolong and strangle the state) are going to generate a deficit closer to 10% to 5%. A bill that will take years (a generation "?) To pay. The decline in the services provided by the welfare state will be considerable: health, education, pensions .... Meanwhile
banking is playing with fire ... sitting on a can of gasoline. As the bankruptcy of the largest developers triple its current rate of default .... They're keeping their flats, townhouses .... On the one hand, we offer customers another with rebates of up to 50% on the original appraisal (based on which granted appropriations at the time). This pressure on prices that are causing the banks is creating a perverse effect on the market: the promoter "good" (which continues to pay their debts to the bank religiously) does not sell a single story (the few that are sold ... sold it banks ... they are the ones that credit for selected customers). Gradually the promoters "good" may not meet its commitments to the bank ... and they will become real estate. Before the end of the football league (by the way .... Liga BBVA) instead of giving checks to those lucky enough to put a goal from midfield ... they are giving away a detached in Murcia or a warehouse in Guadalajara.
And worst of all, you have billions of euros from state coffers (ie our taxes) to try to save the economy ... and nothing suggests that the bleeding is stopped. It is true that currently there are many more banks have gone bankrupt, but the virus has not yet been eradicated. While not known with certainty the volume of assets that circulate throughout the world, the beginning of the end of the problem does not appear. The banks will not lend, not buy the citizens and businesses ... without making. Habemus recession.

Enrique de la Rica, School of Business ESEUNE (http://www.eseune.edu) Evolutionary Blog (http://eseune.blogspot.com)

Best Medicine For Tight Chest

In a place of Macha ....

La comunidad manchega es conocida por las singladuras de su célebre hidalgo caballero, sus entrañables molinos, la textura de sus quesos….y su caja de ahorros.
La CCM se ha hecho más famosa de lo que los manchegos pensaban (y querrían). Y durante muchos años será recordada. “Aquí empezó todo….” Dirán algunos.

Porque el crujido del sistema financiero español solo acaba de empezar. “¡En vísperas del G-20!” –dicen algunos. “¡Qué papelón para Zapatero!”- dicen otros. La verdad es que a Zapatero lo de la caja manchega “se la pela” (con sorry). Does anyone imagine Obama having tea with Gordon Brown and comment ... "Hey ... that scene in Spain that Moltó box" ... and the British response ... "but it's not a bike Moltó?" The

the CCM has no point of comparison with surgery and / or rescue of U.S. banks, British, German, Dutch ... And probably the presidents of those governments or have heard of La Mancha box
But as I said .... the crack is just above the flood. A slight sound that surprises you when you walk down the mountainside and stimulates your senses to run and seek shelter.

That is what we should do. Running and prepare for the next.
I've never been very good with numbers (my teacher would correct me and say that rather bad) but the rule of three I knew it perfectly. If
with just under 4 million unemployed have a delinquency rate now close to 4 %.... in time when unemployment gets a little older and reach 5 million (20%) rate ... late payments will double.

The strike is unstoppable bleeding ... among other things because nobody does anything about it (not taking a single structural measure and we just wait and see what happens, and take us forward the avalanche) and some analysts expect to reach a default rate of 9% (the analyst Santiago López Day Credit Suisse said today that in late 2009 to 8%)

Consider a scenario: 20% unemployment, 5 million unemployed (counting self-employed who have no work, etc.), and a default rate of 9%. A more likely scenario (except for the optimistic anthropology).

In this case the effect of La Mancha will run quickly to other banks, and banks. Several stalling. It will require an injection of about 100,000 million Euros (10 times less than in the United States of America ... but too much for the States Disunited Iberia). And I'm not exaggerating ... because Credit Suisse forecasts already talking about 60,000 million ...


Those will suffer most are the boxes, the most exposed to the "English subprime (mortgages for 120% of the value of housing, 50 years, for people who once had contracts garbage ... and now queue daily in the INEM). Many have to make a move now (have not heard the crunch of snow avalanche advertising!) And begin to merge (or three ... or four ...) to sell its industrial holdings while still being worth something, to issue voting shares, close absurd branches of many of them far from their territory ....

Banks in general are less exposed to the brick (a clamp formed by the developer who is renegotiating its debt and mortgaged unemployed who do not pay premiums). But that is "generally" a bank "in particular" need urgent intervention, rescue, shot .... Or whatever. And many of them to sell assets, cut dividend, raise capital ....

And meanwhile ... looking to London. So we were five months ago .... Looking at Washington. There are going to rebuild the capitalist system ... and finally decided just "meeting again in five months. ... And wait has been lucky. " Pessimists say that the next G-20 will be staged the tension arising from the divergent views within the European Union. I am more optimistic, nothing will happen. Nothing at all, not too much, or little ... I would say Café Quijano. The main agreement is "to meet again after the summer .... And see what happens"

Enrique de la Rica, School of Business ESEUNE (http://www.eseune.edu) Evolutionary Blog (http://eseune.blogspot. com)