Cruzcampo is not a Guinness and that's a no-brainer, but both are cervezas.España was not Greece, Spain is not Ireland, Spain is not Portugal as our neighbors have to be rescued. But Spain is Spain.
Our country generates an unprecedented mistrust. The image of our President at the summit of heads of state of NATO, seeking its place, with his head down, staring at the floor, wandering from left to right, asked "Where is Spain?" Is an image that equals one words (and many other macro figures.) A scene that could have been written by the writer himself Mr. Bean perfectly describes where we are: disoriented discouraged, dejected and without direction.
country risk highest since 1996, the differential with the German bond rising, the stock falling. Two years of recession (GDP falls 3.7% and 0.3% in 2009 and 2010), an unemployment rate exceeding 20%, a 60% debt grows progressively (reaching 70% in 2011). And some prospects that delay the recovery until 2015 or 2017 (according to OECD) predicts a "future mediocre, low growth, high unemployment and high deficits.
And our leaders wield only one argument: Spain is not Ireland. Obvious. But the problem is not our similarities with Greece and Ireland, not even in the sharing of the honorable membership club PIGS "the problem of Spain is Spain itself. Spain
mistrust because very few are plausible recovery of our economy without deep reform. Our competitiveness is still a liability and not to devalue our currency options maybe we should carry out an internal devaluation reducing wages by 25% to regain competitiveness while getting off strategies based on innovation and change in the production model (in the best can make a decade.)
This problem hinders competitiveness to take advantage of expected growth foreign markets. It is true that exports are growing, but compared with 2009. English exports Comparing the third quarter to 80.7% are in the same quarter of 2008. China surpasses the comparative figures (105.9% compared to 2008), Japan almost equal (96.8%) while the European Union countries are in a similar figure to that of Spain (Germany 84.9% , UK 83%). Are statistics of the World Trade Organization. Show that our exports grow but at a slower pace than the economies of our environment. There is an argument to endorse in any recovery of our competitiveness, although these days I have come to hear otherwise.
As I have also heard this week that the deficit is shrinking very fast. As an observer I find it somewhat hard to believe in an economy that grows, with an unemployment rate that if you do and some local administrations in which nobody is willing to step on the brake too. The latest report from the Bank of Spain said that the deficit on June 30 was 10.9% (only two-tenths below the figure at the end of 2009) in which this reduction is not being as "fast" as some say. In addition, there are many voices who argue an inhomogeneous accounting of tax revenues (as an article of Liberty Digital). Government accounting engineering leads to increased income tax deduction (the abolition of the deduction of 400 euros and has also entered the amount of the settlement of 2009, we have 5 / 10 of GDP in revenue really correspond to 2009, but are counting in 2010. If it had accounted for otherwise the real 2009 deficit would have been 10.6% and the trend of 2010 will go to 11.4%, ie 8 / 10 more. What I mean by this? That book is very well engineered to deceive But others believe it is stupid self. This well reduce engineering base deficit accounting, but the reality is that, beyond the engineering, we are not really addressing the real problem. The media also revealed that Treasury Economist seems to have been ordered to delay as much as possible VAT refunds to businesses. Any defect of form is valid to make up the deficit figure. Some speak of a minimum of 7,000 million euros, or about 7 / 10 of GDP. If that make up the deficit back to 12%.
is also relieved (to justify that Spain is not Ireland), the argument of our economic "recovery": the GDP growth in 2010. If so, grow a little more than 0%. Concluded that those who want. But note that this growth will be, once again, the result of makeup (not stenciling sustained real growth of our economy). As an example quoted in Digital Freedom : those discussed VAT returns have been recorded by the companies (see INE) as part of GVA (Gross Value Added) generated by one side (the failure to put into effect by Finance) have also been recorded as taxes on production. Some speak of 6,000 million euros in the third quarter. What does that mean? That instead of growing by 0.2% year would fall by 2.2%! It is true that without these makeup accounting would now be a real trouble (the edge of the rescue)
Another argument used by the Government when it mentioned the English debt problem is its size, lower in some cases and very similar to the Eurozone countries. But we all know that what matters is not the amount you owe, but the ability to meet your commitments. What some call credit. We little when compared to others, but show little ability to pay what we owe. Why? An economy that grows, an unemployment rate of 20%, poor competitiveness and a government that does not take a single measure of depth about it portend a stalemate over a decade (at least) if no one remedy. In this scenario, is it not someone think of hypothetical problems of solvency? No, it's easier to think of ruthless speculators mercilessly attacking Spain, the Euro, the West ....
Credibility goes to prove "the markets" that Spain can grow and contain public spending. But that is not shown with figures make up, but with deeds, ie, structural measures to improve the competitiveness of our businesses, reduce unemployment and allow growth consumption on the one hand, and with serious plans to curb public spending in municipalities and autonomous regions (this week read the data from the cost to the citizens to support so many regional television, "we can afford such luxuries in this day run?)
The price of our bond grows. What if reached 7%? It is better to answer: never come to that. But smarter predict what might happen if it is fired up these fees. As has happened in Ireland, the bank deposits dwindle (the capital fugaría to other countries) and the banks would struggle to renew its external debt. The housing market is not recover and be impossible to clear the bricks and the floor of the balance sheets of banks. The bank would use the ECB to help with liquidity ... but we've seen what happens next: Once these extremes, in a matter of weeks or months, the problem is not resolved.
Ireland and Spain are not many arguments to prove it. One of them unemployed. Some are surprised when the 'markets' distrust of Spain. But no one "puts on his shoes": how can trust and rest easy in a country with 20% unemployment rate? Many people outside of Spain are wondering why has not a revolt erupted social, some think that sooner or later the problem will explode. Are not they reasons enough to be worried analysts and international investors? (No way! The strike does not matter are just a few rogue speculators)
To make matters worse, the Irish deficit has soared because the state has taken losses in the banking sector, which are already known mostly . But in Spain we still have pending the restructuring of our financial sector, with losses due to real estate have yet to emerge.
the end I leave something I've been discussing since 2007, when launching the subprime problem in the United States and was said that Spain had no such problem; true; U.S. banks gave loans to people who could not afford to buy a flat. In Spain that did not happen, but the floors are there: built and unsold. The banks gave money to developers build flats Paraquad people can not now afford to buy. It is not the same, but its consequences may be similar. The bursting of the housing bubble affected individuals, developers, builders, suppliers, municipalities ... But there really has not affected the final link in the chain of banks. And here so .... Spain may seem to Ireland.
As in the case of Ireland we have a health problem of the financial system. If we add two plus two are four, with 325,000 million euros in loans tied to the brick and a "mediocre future" (according to the OECD) with growing unemployment and close to 0% to 2% until 2013 (at least ), our banks and are close to crash. And here is where you use another argument "final" exceeded "stress-test." Ya. And the two Irish banks who had approved them, too. From the highs of August, the financial sector has destroyed 25% of its market capitalization in the last month, has left 18%. And analysts at Barclays Capital foreign exchange brought to English savings banks as a major weakness, not of Spain but of the euro area and the common currency itself!
We only have two choices: take urgent action now, or be rescued and operated throughout 2011. Passivity is not an option and unfounded optimism is not medicine.
Indeed. Ireland and Spain is not a good cold Cruzcampo 33cl bottle is a pint of Guinness. But we must remember that the brewer Guinness Brewing purchased the brewery in Seville Wolldwide Cruzcampo SA for twenty years and the problems in Ireland are no exception to the factory de Sevilla (como tampoco podrán ser ignorados por la "fábrica" de Moncloa)
Enrique de la Rica, Escuela de Negocios ESEUNE (http://www.eseune.edu) Blog Evolucionario (http://eseune.blogspot.com) 
0 comments:
Post a Comment